The numbers tell a troubling story, but official figures only tell part of it.
Nigeria’s unemployment rate should earn everyone a sleepless night
It sounds manageable, but dig deeper: back in 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that 53.4% of 15- to 24-year-olds were unemployed, and 37.2% of 25- to 34-year-olds. Figures experts believe that the figures are far closer to the reality on the ground.
A controversial change on how unemployment is calculated has made the headline numbers look better. The lived experience of millions of Nigerians has not.
Informal employment dominates at 93%; meaning the vast majority of working Nigerians have no job security, no benefits, and no guaranteed income. Having a “job” in Nigeria often means surviving, not thriving.
About 1.7 million graduates leave Nigeria’s universities and polytechnics every year, yet the economy lacks the capacity to absorb them. The result? Six in 10 Nigerian youth have considered emigrating, mostly to find jobs or escape the economic hardship.
The number of persons who have given serious thought to leaving has tripled since 2017. This is brain drain in real time.
The wages picture is equally grim. Most Nigerians who work are locked in low-productivity roles that offer no path out of poverty. The Nigerian Economic Summit Group estimates that Nigeria must create 27.3 million jobs by 2030 just to hold the unemployment rate steady; an almost impossible target given the current economic conditions.
The dangers ahead are real: frustration from a lack of employment opportunities creates conditions conducive to criminal activity, insurgency, and rural-urban migration that places unnecessary pressure on our weak infrastructure and expands urban slums in cities like Lagos and Abuja.
Nigeria has the people, the creativity, and the resources to turn this around. But it requires bold policy, and urgency; not cosmetic statistics and recycled programs.
The clock is ticking.
When this house collapses eventually, it will fall on everyone. This is not about politics or alliances. The realities are tiring.
